Damn That Global Warming

(YES SORRY FOR USING THIS ONE AGAIN) BUT IT WO...

We got a bunch of snow this winter, unlike the past few years. Of course, what we had was nothing compared to what they got on the Eastern Seaboard. So, I had to kinda wonder about this…

A famous climate scientist predicted that the Arctic would be ice-free in five years. Unfortunately for him, that was five years ago.

The Guardian published an article in August 2008 in which Professor Wieslaw Maslowski produced a forecast "which indicated that by 2013 there will be no ice in the Arctic, other than a few outcrops on islands near Greenland and Canada, between mid-July and mid-September."

Maslowski said that ice is “clearly not building up enough over winter to restore cover”. I guess he missed the forecast for this year. Another quote in the same article reported that, "Now the most detailed computer models suggest the Arctic's summer ice is going to last for only a few more years." This quote was from Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University.

Arctic ice did not disappear last summer, and it doesn’t seem to be disappearing now. The "average sea ice extent for January 2013 was 5.32 million square miles."

But, that won’t stop Obama from trying to gain political leverage from a failed global warming theory. In his recent State of the Union address, he declared, "For the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change."

I like what respected climate scientist Richard Lindzen said about all this:

"Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age."

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Comments

    • Insomniac Acres
    • December 21, 2013
    Reply

    Is Global Warming Really A Plot By Republicans To Make The Earth’s Climate Better For Space Aliens? That way they can get a better price when they sell us out–the way they already sold us out to the Arabs and Chinese.

    It would also explain why they keep denying the existence of Global Warming even as the weather keeps getting weirder.

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • December 21, 2013
      Reply

      Damn! You found us out!

      View Comment
    • Maxx
    • December 21, 2013
    Reply

    Arctic Sea Ice Hits A 10 Year High On 25 June 2013 — Another EXTREME Prediction Fail Of AGW Alarmists? ———————–

    Yes, it’s true. Arctic Sea Ice has very recently hit a 10 year high. The data is from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and is graphed in the link below.

    Arctic Sea Ice hits a 10 Year High on 25 June 2013
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/arctic-gains-16600-manhattans-of-sea-ice-since-2010-at-ten-year-high/

    In 2007 Professor Wieslaw Maslowski and Dr Mark Serreze presented one of the most alarming forecasts ever by telling the BBC that climate models were not predicting Arctic Ice melt fast enough.

    Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

    Is this yet another catastrophic prediction FAILURE for man-made Global Warming advocates/alarmists?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Jerry – True. But this is a gargantuan/extreme fail that clearly shows their climate models aren’t worth the electrons it took to produce them. — But at least they were expensive and we got to pay BILLIONS for them.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Gringo – Way to go!! Try to introduce the BIG MYSTERY — cast that long shadow of doubt.

    Hey, I’ve got a better idea Gringo, why don’t you just let us all in on your little secret that you think is going to blow the lid on this data, then we will have a good long look at it.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Al – Where is your link to back up your claim that ice “volume is down considerably” because Jeff Masters does not address that in the link you provided. How exactly do you ‘know’ that the volume of ice is down when the visible Ice Extent is at a 10 year high?

    And did your climate models predict there would be a record 10 year high for Arctic ice extent in 2013?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    kano – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. Warmists predicted summer ice could be gone by 2013 but it’s at a 10 year high.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “They looked rather stupid when a few weeks later it was at the lowest extent ever known for that date.”

    YES I believe I know the instance you are talking about — BUT the low for the ice WAS NOT BECAUSE of WARMING — was it? There was a special event — wasn’t there?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “For years now the amount of Arctic sea-ice has been millions of square kilometres less than it used to be”

    Well yeah… that is true, but so what? We’ve had some warming and that is totally to be expected. The point is that in June 2013 Ice Extent is now at a HIGH and that was NOT expected, especially not by the climate models.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – If somebody is lying about the current state of Arctic Ice Extent, it’s not Goddard. The data is from University of Alaska Fairbanks, are you accusing them of lying?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    antarcticice – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. But you knew that.

    ———————–

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • December 21, 2013
      Reply

      Trevor reminds me of this :

      BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS
      Effect = Cooling or warming
      Scale = Global
      Cause = N and A, N influenced by A
      Status = Strong warming
      Time = Years to centuries

      This is his answer to one of the “effects” of Climate ‘Change’. Notice in his answer he states “Strong warming” when science has never concluded this in his cause.

      As the statement says “it could be gone already” but the fact still remains!

      I’m new here but I’ve found out that since 1978 Global Temperatures have risen 0.2 C. Since I’ve joined this website, global temperatures have decreased a lot. We are currently in a cooling trend.

      View Comment
    • Spartacus
    • December 25, 2013
    Reply

    Is The Discussion Regarding Climate Change Science One Side Showing The Problem And The Other Yelling COMMIE? If I told a neocon he was bleeding and offered a bandaid would they yell at me that I’m a commie or take the bandaid.

    — Evidence for Global Warming
    Recent observations of warming support the theory that greenhouse gases are warming the world. Over the last century, the planet has experienced the largest increase in surface temperature in 1,300 years. The average surface temperature of the Earth rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.08??F to 1.62??F) between 1906 and 2006, and the rate of temperature increase nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Worldwide measurements of sea level show a rise of about 0.17 meters (0.56 feet) during the twentieth century. The world???s glaciers have steadily receded, and Arctic sea ice extent has steadily shrunk by 2.7 percent per decade since 1978.
    Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the planet would continue to warm by about 0.6??C over the next century because it takes years for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. As Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Scientists suspect that currents have transported some of this excess heat from surface waters down deep, removing it from the surface of our planet. Once the lower layers of the ocean have warmed, the excess heat in the upper layers will no longer be drawn down, and Earth will warm about 0.6??C (1?? F).

    But how do scientists know global warming is caused by humans and that the observed warming isn???t a natural variation in Earth???s climate? Scientists use three closely connected methods to understand changes in Earth???s climate.
    They look at records of Earth???s past climates to see how and why climate changed in the past, they build computer models that allow them to see how the climate works, and they closely monitor Earth???s current vital signs with an array of instruments ranging from space-based satellites to deep sea thermometers. Records of past climate change reveal the natural events???such as volcanic eruptions and solar activity???that influenced climate throughout Earth???s history. Today, scientists monitor those same natural events as well as human-released greenhouse gases and use computer models to determine how each influences Earth???s climate.

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • December 25, 2013
      Reply

      Hey whether it is caused by humans or just the normal earth weather cycle, I want to go green so I don’t have to spend my paycheck just to get to work everyday…

      View Comment
    • Chem Flunky
    • January 14, 2014
    Reply

    What’s The Most Amusing Basic Science Error You’ve Seen A Denialist Make? Some of the things that skeptics, “skeptics”, and denialists say here are, well, at least within shouting distance of real science. They are, at worst, things scientists used to believe a couple of decades ago.

    And then there are the things that are just flat-out wrong.

    Using actual quotes or links, please, what’s the most amusing science error or incoherence you’ve seen here? I’m not looking for the conspiracy theories or the like, just places where denialists are trying to talk about science and failing miserably. You can include several, if you find more than one gem.

    View Comment
    1. Reply

      The funniest one ever was the invention of the “Hockey Stick” graph from Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 and 1999.

      Even the IPCC is starting to distance itself and is talking about medievel Climate Anomalies. There is no anomaly in the Hockey Sticks.

      The tropospheric hotspot must be a close second. Again the IPCC is being a bit quiet about it now.

      Then of course there is the Big Oil Funding problem. Big Al sold his TV station to, effectively, the Qatari government. Heidi Cullen and Michael Mann are all in favour: http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/al-jazeeras-climate-activist-fans-dont-care-about-the-networ

      The CRU in East Anglia has been oil funded, so has Muller, even Dana works for a company that makes money from oil companies.
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/dana-nuccitellis-vested-interest-oil-and-gas/

      Then there was Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the CRU: “Children just aren't going to know what snow is.”

      Or Professor Wieslaw Maslowski who said that the Arctic would be ice free by 2013.

      Or Dr Kevin Trenberth who said that the IPCC never made any predictions:
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/25/trenberths-ipcc-claim-of-no-predictions-by-ipcc-at-all-refuted-by-ipccs-own-words/

      Or Cook et al who claim that 97% of climate science abstracts claim that man is responsible when in fact a close look at the data shows that only 0.3% of the abstracts claim more than 50% man-made.

      Oh sorry, I have just re-read the question. You said sceptics. Oh, well, never mind.

      EDIT: So, if we need to take into account Phase then doesn’t that require the system to be cyclic? That is, driven by some repetitive mechanism and not an ever-increasing forcing like man-made CO2. A fixed time lag is a constantly increasing phase lag across the frequency spectrum.

      Causality was quite an important “basic” physics lesson, too.

      View Comment
    • Littlerobbergirl
    • February 4, 2014
    Reply

    Why Is The Arctic Ice Extent So Low For The Time Of Year Despite Recent Cool Weather? “Despite cool temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean in January, Arctic sea ice extent continued to track below normal. By the end of January, ice extent dropped below the extent observed in January 2007. Ice extent was unusually low in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, the one major area of the Arctic where temperatures remained warmer than normal.”
    from;
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
    “Slow freeze-up keeps ice extent low

    Analysis of data from the last three decades shows that the summer Arctic sea ice melt season now lasts nearly a month longer than it did in the 1980s. A later start of freeze-up and an earlier start to the melt season both contribute to the change. A recent paper by Thorsten Markus at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center suggests that the later freeze-up is the dominant factor lengthening the melt season. The analysis shows that, on average, autumn freeze-up starts nearly four days later each year. Extensive open water at the end of the summer melt season, combined with warmer autumns, delay the autumn freeze-up. The larger expanses of open water absorb more solar energy, and before ice can form again, that heat must be released back to the atmosphere. This trend is most pronounced in the Beaufort, Chukchi and Laptev seas.”

    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100203_Figure5.png
    pindar, the measurements are from a group of nasa satellites.
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice.php
    periodically people do indeed go onto the ice and measure extent and thickness, the latest was the caitlin survey last spring, and they are going again this year.
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
    also we have several datasets for the last few years from nuclear subs passing under the pole.
    the satellite data have proved to be outstandingly accurate over the years.
    now backed up by CIA pictures as well, that other well known group of ‘liars’ ;-D

    View Comment
    1. Reply

      Arctic sea ice extent is always tricky. It’s not as simple as hot = less ice extent, as we saw from the fact that 2009 was a very hot year – especially in the Arctic – yet the sea ice extent was greater than in 2008 or 2007.

      The current low extent may have something to do with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, but it’s impossible to say for certain what’s causing it. Perhaps the lack of multi-year ice is playing a role as well.

      View Comment
    • Barry UK
    • February 5, 2014
    Reply

    Will The David Bellamy Lecture At Buckingham Palace Be Covered By The BBC.? Thank goodness for the Duke of Edinburgh and that common sense is not completely absent in Great Britain.

    View Comment
    1. Reply

      No, the BBC will have been swept away by rising sea levels.

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
      Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

      By Jonathan Amos
      Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco

      Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records

      More details

      Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

      Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

      Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

      Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

      Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

      In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly

      Professor Peter Wadhams

      “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
      “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

      View Comment
    • Kano
    • February 12, 2014
    Reply

    What Is Happening To Antarctic Sea Ice Extent? It reached a record this year and it is looking like it wants to hang around a bit.
    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
    Big Gryph. Yes I read it, very interesting but didn’t answer my question, and no way do I believe Antarctic ice volume is decreasing, show me proof (not dodgy satellite data)

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • February 12, 2014
      Reply

      The Antarctic ice shelf is yet another real world condition currently making absolute fools out of the religious AGW alarmist lunatics.

      View Comment
    • Barry UK
    • February 15, 2014
    Reply

    Will The David Bellamy Lecture At Buckingham Palace Be Covered By The BBC.? Thank goodness for the Duke of Edinburgh and that common sense is not completely absent in Great Britain.

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • February 15, 2014
      Reply

      No, the BBC will have been swept away by rising sea levels.

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
      Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

      By Jonathan Amos
      Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco

      Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records

      More details

      Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

      Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

      Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

      Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

      Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

      In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly

      Professor Peter Wadhams

      “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
      “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

      View Comment
    • Maxx
    • February 23, 2014
    Reply

    Arctic Sea Ice Hits A 10 Year High On 25 June 2013 — Another EXTREME Prediction Fail Of AGW Alarmists? ———————–

    Yes, it’s true. Arctic Sea Ice has very recently hit a 10 year high. The data is from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and is graphed in the link below.

    Arctic Sea Ice hits a 10 Year High on 25 June 2013
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/arctic-gains-16600-manhattans-of-sea-ice-since-2010-at-ten-year-high/

    In 2007 Professor Wieslaw Maslowski and Dr Mark Serreze presented one of the most alarming forecasts ever by telling the BBC that climate models were not predicting Arctic Ice melt fast enough.

    Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

    Is this yet another catastrophic prediction FAILURE for man-made Global Warming advocates/alarmists?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Jerry – True. But this is a gargantuan/extreme fail that clearly shows their climate models aren’t worth the electrons it took to produce them. — But at least they were expensive and we got to pay BILLIONS for them.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Gringo – Way to go!! Try to introduce the BIG MYSTERY — cast that long shadow of doubt.

    Hey, I’ve got a better idea Gringo, why don’t you just let us all in on your little secret that you think is going to blow the lid on this data, then we will have a good long look at it.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Al – Where is your link to back up your claim that ice “volume is down considerably” because Jeff Masters does not address that in the link you provided. How exactly do you ‘know’ that the volume of ice is down when the visible Ice Extent is at a 10 year high?

    And did your climate models predict there would be a record 10 year high for Arctic ice extent in 2013?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    kano – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. Warmists predicted summer ice could be gone by 2013 but it’s at a 10 year high.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “They looked rather stupid when a few weeks later it was at the lowest extent ever known for that date.”

    YES I believe I know the instance you are talking about — BUT the low for the ice WAS NOT BECAUSE of WARMING — was it? There was a special event — wasn’t there?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “For years now the amount of Arctic sea-ice has been millions of square kilometres less than it used to be”

    Well yeah… that is true, but so what? We’ve had some warming and that is totally to be expected. The point is that in June 2013 Ice Extent is now at a HIGH and that was NOT expected, especially not by the climate models.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – If somebody is lying about the current state of Arctic Ice Extent, it’s not Goddard. The data is from University of Alaska Fairbanks, are you accusing them of lying?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    antarcticice – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. But you knew that.

    ———————–

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • February 23, 2014
      Reply

      Trevor reminds me of this :

      BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS
      Effect = Cooling or warming
      Scale = Global
      Cause = N and A, N influenced by A
      Status = Strong warming
      Time = Years to centuries

      This is his answer to one of the “effects” of Climate ‘Change’. Notice in his answer he states “Strong warming” when science has never concluded this in his cause.

      As the statement says “it could be gone already” but the fact still remains!

      I’m new here but I’ve found out that since 1978 Global Temperatures have risen 0.2 C. Since I’ve joined this website, global temperatures have decreased a lot. We are currently in a cooling trend.

      View Comment
    • Maxx
    • February 26, 2014
    Reply

    Arctic Sea Ice Hits A 10 Year High On 25 June 2013 — Another EXTREME Prediction Fail Of AGW Alarmists? ———————–

    Yes, it’s true. Arctic Sea Ice has very recently hit a 10 year high. The data is from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and is graphed in the link below.

    Arctic Sea Ice hits a 10 Year High on 25 June 2013
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/arctic-gains-16600-manhattans-of-sea-ice-since-2010-at-ten-year-high/

    In 2007 Professor Wieslaw Maslowski and Dr Mark Serreze presented one of the most alarming forecasts ever by telling the BBC that climate models were not predicting Arctic Ice melt fast enough.

    Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

    Is this yet another catastrophic prediction FAILURE for man-made Global Warming advocates/alarmists?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Jerry – True. But this is a gargantuan/extreme fail that clearly shows their climate models aren’t worth the electrons it took to produce them. — But at least they were expensive and we got to pay BILLIONS for them.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Gringo – Way to go!! Try to introduce the BIG MYSTERY — cast that long shadow of doubt.

    Hey, I’ve got a better idea Gringo, why don’t you just let us all in on your little secret that you think is going to blow the lid on this data, then we will have a good long look at it.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Al – Where is your link to back up your claim that ice “volume is down considerably” because Jeff Masters does not address that in the link you provided. How exactly do you ‘know’ that the volume of ice is down when the visible Ice Extent is at a 10 year high?

    And did your climate models predict there would be a record 10 year high for Arctic ice extent in 2013?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    kano – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. Warmists predicted summer ice could be gone by 2013 but it’s at a 10 year high.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “They looked rather stupid when a few weeks later it was at the lowest extent ever known for that date.”

    YES I believe I know the instance you are talking about — BUT the low for the ice WAS NOT BECAUSE of WARMING — was it? There was a special event — wasn’t there?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “For years now the amount of Arctic sea-ice has been millions of square kilometres less than it used to be”

    Well yeah… that is true, but so what? We’ve had some warming and that is totally to be expected. The point is that in June 2013 Ice Extent is now at a HIGH and that was NOT expected, especially not by the climate models.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – If somebody is lying about the current state of Arctic Ice Extent, it’s not Goddard. The data is from University of Alaska Fairbanks, are you accusing them of lying?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    antarcticice – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. But you knew that.

    ———————–

    View Comment
      • Admin
      • February 26, 2014
      Reply

      Trevor reminds me of this :

      BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS
      Effect = Cooling or warming
      Scale = Global
      Cause = N and A, N influenced by A
      Status = Strong warming
      Time = Years to centuries

      This is his answer to one of the “effects” of Climate ‘Change’. Notice in his answer he states “Strong warming” when science has never concluded this in his cause.

      As the statement says “it could be gone already” but the fact still remains!

      I’m new here but I’ve found out that since 1978 Global Temperatures have risen 0.2 C. Since I’ve joined this website, global temperatures have decreased a lot. We are currently in a cooling trend.

      View Comment
      • Admin
      • February 27, 2014
      Reply

      If an unusual low level of Arctic ice was evidence of significant anthropogenic global warming, then using exactly the same logic, high levels of Arctic ice should be evidence of an absence of significant anthropogenic global warming.

      Warmists don’t like having their own logic used on them. Any evidence against their preconceived beliefs just makes them angry.

      View Comment
    • Flossie
    • March 8, 2014
    Reply

    The NSIDC Now Predict Total Ice Free Arctic By End Of Century? The NSIDC now predict total ice free Arctic by end of century?
    4 years ago they confidentially predicted this event by 2013: ‘It is a neck-and-neck race between 2007 and this year over the issue of ice loss,’ said Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado
    Why have they changed their minds? This is an astonishing 87 years difference. Can someone tell us how the new figure has been arrived at and how the old one was so incorrect, by a factor of over 13 times?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/10/climatechange.arctic
    Ice at the North Pole melted at an unprecedented rate last week, with leading scientists warning that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2013.
    Now the most detailed computer models suggest the Arctic’s summer ice is going to last for only a few more years – and given what we have seen happen last week, I think they are probably correct.’

    How can anyone believe any of this when NASA and NSIDC disagree by a factor of 13 times? NASA says 2013, NSIDC say the end of the century, but note they don’t say which century.

    View Comment
    1. Reply

      From Pegminer”s post:
      < <>>

      I don’t know if the NSIDC predicted it but according to Pegminer’s article some idiots did. I would suspect they realize what complete idiots they were drawing the line in the sand so near in the future and decided next time to extend their predictions so far out that they would be sure to be dead by the time anyone could prove them wrong.

      View Comment
    • Maxx
    • April 12, 2014
    Reply

    Arctic Sea Ice Hits A 10 Year High On 25 June 2013 — Another EXTREME Prediction Fail Of AGW Alarmists? ———————–

    Yes, it’s true. Arctic Sea Ice has very recently hit a 10 year high. The data is from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and is graphed in the link below.

    Arctic Sea Ice hits a 10 Year High on 25 June 2013
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/arctic-gains-16600-manhattans-of-sea-ice-since-2010-at-ten-year-high/

    In 2007 Professor Wieslaw Maslowski and Dr Mark Serreze presented one of the most alarming forecasts ever by telling the BBC that climate models were not predicting Arctic Ice melt fast enough.

    Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

    Is this yet another catastrophic prediction FAILURE for man-made Global Warming advocates/alarmists?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Jerry – True. But this is a gargantuan/extreme fail that clearly shows their climate models aren’t worth the electrons it took to produce them. — But at least they were expensive and we got to pay BILLIONS for them.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Gringo – Way to go!! Try to introduce the BIG MYSTERY — cast that long shadow of doubt.

    Hey, I’ve got a better idea Gringo, why don’t you just let us all in on your little secret that you think is going to blow the lid on this data, then we will have a good long look at it.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Al – Where is your link to back up your claim that ice “volume is down considerably” because Jeff Masters does not address that in the link you provided. How exactly do you ‘know’ that the volume of ice is down when the visible Ice Extent is at a 10 year high?

    And did your climate models predict there would be a record 10 year high for Arctic ice extent in 2013?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    kano – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. Warmists predicted summer ice could be gone by 2013 but it’s at a 10 year high.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “They looked rather stupid when a few weeks later it was at the lowest extent ever known for that date.”

    YES I believe I know the instance you are talking about — BUT the low for the ice WAS NOT BECAUSE of WARMING — was it? There was a special event — wasn’t there?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – You say: “For years now the amount of Arctic sea-ice has been millions of square kilometres less than it used to be”

    Well yeah… that is true, but so what? We’ve had some warming and that is totally to be expected. The point is that in June 2013 Ice Extent is now at a HIGH and that was NOT expected, especially not by the climate models.

    ———————–
    ———————–

    Trevor – If somebody is lying about the current state of Arctic Ice Extent, it’s not Goddard. The data is from University of Alaska Fairbanks, are you accusing them of lying?

    ———————–
    ———————–

    antarcticice – The Arctic Ice Extent is at a 10 year high for the annual date of June 25, maybe that is what you did not understand. But you knew that.

    ———————–

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    1. Reply

      Trevor reminds me of this :

      BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS
      Effect = Cooling or warming
      Scale = Global
      Cause = N and A, N influenced by A
      Status = Strong warming
      Time = Years to centuries

      This is his answer to one of the “effects” of Climate ‘Change’. Notice in his answer he states “Strong warming” when science has never concluded this in his cause.

      As the statement says “it could be gone already” but the fact still remains!

      I’m new here but I’ve found out that since 1978 Global Temperatures have risen 0.2 C. Since I’ve joined this website, global temperatures have decreased a lot. We are currently in a cooling trend.

      View Comment
    • Littlerobbergirl
    • April 29, 2014
    Reply

    Why Is The Arctic Ice Extent So Low For The Time Of Year Despite Recent Cool Weather? “Despite cool temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean in January, Arctic sea ice extent continued to track below normal. By the end of January, ice extent dropped below the extent observed in January 2007. Ice extent was unusually low in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, the one major area of the Arctic where temperatures remained warmer than normal.”
    from;
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
    “Slow freeze-up keeps ice extent low

    Analysis of data from the last three decades shows that the summer Arctic sea ice melt season now lasts nearly a month longer than it did in the 1980s. A later start of freeze-up and an earlier start to the melt season both contribute to the change. A recent paper by Thorsten Markus at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center suggests that the later freeze-up is the dominant factor lengthening the melt season. The analysis shows that, on average, autumn freeze-up starts nearly four days later each year. Extensive open water at the end of the summer melt season, combined with warmer autumns, delay the autumn freeze-up. The larger expanses of open water absorb more solar energy, and before ice can form again, that heat must be released back to the atmosphere. This trend is most pronounced in the Beaufort, Chukchi and Laptev seas.”

    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100203_Figure5.png
    pindar, the measurements are from a group of nasa satellites.
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice.php
    periodically people do indeed go onto the ice and measure extent and thickness, the latest was the caitlin survey last spring, and they are going again this year.
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
    also we have several datasets for the last few years from nuclear subs passing under the pole.
    the satellite data have proved to be outstandingly accurate over the years.
    now backed up by CIA pictures as well, that other well known group of ‘liars’ ;-D

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    1. Reply

      Arctic sea ice extent is always tricky. It’s not as simple as hot = less ice extent, as we saw from the fact that 2009 was a very hot year – especially in the Arctic – yet the sea ice extent was greater than in 2008 or 2007.

      The current low extent may have something to do with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, but it’s impossible to say for certain what’s causing it. Perhaps the lack of multi-year ice is playing a role as well.

      View Comment
    • Mr. Questions
    • April 30, 2014
    Reply

    Information On Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice? Recently arctic sea ice extent increased greatly.
    Will the overall declining trend continue?
    Share anything else you know about declining arctic sea ice.
    Please site sources!
    Thanks!

    View Comment
    1. Reply

      Will the overall declining trend continue?

      Yes. According to scientific measurements, Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically over at least the past thirty years, with the most extreme decline seen in the summer melt season. With temperatures increasing at the current rate, arctic sea ice will defiantly continue to decline.

      Last April, sea ice extent was a little higher than usual. http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100504_Figure3.png
      This increase might be attributed to an extremely negative Arctic Oscillation. In February, the strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was associated with a strong Beaufort Gyre, enhancing ice motion from the western to the eastern Arctic. A weaker Transpolar Drift Stream also slowed the movement of ice from the Siberian coast of Russia across the Arctic basin, and reduced ice flow out of Fram Strait. The wind pattern changed in March, when the Arctic Oscillation went into a more neutral phase. As a result, the flow of ice sped up through Fram Strait and along the coast of Greenland. This pattern helps to remove older ice from the central Arctic, pushing it toward the warm waters of the North Atlantic, where it will melt.
      http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

      Why Arctic Sea ice is IMPORTANT:
      Arctic sea ice keeps the polar regions cool and helps moderate global climate. Sea ice has a bright surface, so 80 percent of the sunlight that strikes it is reflected back into space. As sea ice melts in the summer, it exposes the dark ocean surface. Instead of reflecting 80 percent of the sunlight, the ocean absorbs 90 percent of the sunlight. As more sea ice melts, the ocean will absorb more sunlight.
      http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008_faq.html

      Some other sites you might be interested in:
      http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html#really_declining
      http://www.regjeringen.no/upload/UD/Vedlegg/klima/melting_ice_report.pdf
      http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sea
      http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.pngicemin09.html

      View Comment
    • Flossie
    • May 14, 2014
    Reply

    What Time Of Year Is Arctic Ice Extent At Its Lowest? What time of year is Arctic ice extent at its lowest?

    Only as the Artic will be ice free this year, I was wondering when to book my holidays so I can sail to the North Pole.

    The passage of time has not been kind to the Arctic’s fortunes: Where scientists once predicted the Arctic would be ice-free by the end of the century, they revised their estimates in recent months to 2030 and now – stunningly – to 2013. Presenting the findings of his modeling studies at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, Wieslaw Maslowski, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, explained that earlier projections had low-balled the real values by not accounting for some of the processes driving the ice loss

    http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/arctic-ice-free-by-2013.html

    Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
    By Jonathan Amos
    Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
    Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records
    More details
    Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

    Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

    Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

    Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

    Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.
    In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly

    Professor Peter Wadhams

    “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
    “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
    Arctic even.
    Arctic even.
    Arctic even.
    Arctic even.
    EDIT @ Pegminer Your “get just a few decades as your answer ” is preciously what the problem with you “Forecasts” and “Models” is. You keep changing the goalposts every time one of your oh so confident predictions doesn’t come about, this is why less and less people are now taken in by this unscientific myth. “A few decades” out means we’ll all be dead and won’t be able to prove to have been right. Give it up man and admit that not one, that’s one of the predictions have come true.
    EDIT @ Pegminer Your “get just a few decades as your answer ” is preciously what the problem with you “Forecasts” and “Models” is. You keep changing the goalposts every time one of your oh so confident predictions doesn’t come about, this is why less and less people are now taken in by this unscientific myth. “A few decades” out means we’ll all be dead and won’t be able to prove to have been right. Give it up man and admit that not one, that’s one of the predictions have come true.
    EDIT @ Pegminer Your “get just a few decades as your answer ” is preciously what the problem with you “Forecasts” and “Models” is. You keep changing the goalposts every time one of your oh so confident predictions doesn’t come about, this is why less and less people are now taken in by this unscientific myth. “A few decades” out means we’ll all be dead and won’t be able to prove to have been right. Give it up man and admit that not one, that’s one of the predictions have come true.
    EDIT @ Pegminer Your “get just a few decades as your answer ” is preciously what the problem with you “Forecasts” and “Models” is. You keep changing the goalposts every time one of your oh so confident predictions doesn’t come about, this is why less and less people are now taken in by this unscientific myth. “A few decades” out means we’ll all be dead and won’t be able to prove to have been right. Give it up man and admit that not one, that’s one of the predictions have come true.

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    1. Reply

      You should note that “ice free” is “commonly defined as less than 1 million km2 of sea ice extent in September” http://www.asp.ucar.edu/spotlight/alexandra_jahn.php

      However, try Googling that and you’ll see it might be common in the climate science community but it’s certainly not well known. If and when the Arctic is reported as being declared ice free, do you think that fairly pertinent bit of information will be included?
      __________________________________________________________________
      Edit: I don’t usually like to make predictions but this one I’m almost certain of. If and when minimum Arctic ice extent reaches 1 million square miles, it will be reported as ice free in the US (the unit conversion factor and all) and will be echoed world wide. Close enough to make a good story, right?

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